Let us be Optimistic and Careful amidst the COVID 19: it’s not the Apocalypse, but an opportunity to be Human!

As you read this post, you are probably worried that the corona virus will catch up with you or your loved one, and if its not that, the effects of the COVID-19 has a direct impact in how you are used to live, work and interact.

I get it, it’s a great concern to me too, the information that keeps coming in offers less optimism and more anxiety and fear, but hey, where are all here right? and we have to overcome this and be strong for ourselves and those that look up to us.

So, put on that game face and at least spread some love and shed some light to those who are on the periphery of despair and hopelessness. To that parent, child, worker, provider who feels that the world is on the brink of an apocalypse, there is light at the end of this dark and gruesome tunnel!

According to https://worldmeters.info there are 220,873 active corona cases globally as of this post going up, of these there have been 8,988 confirmed deaths and 85,782 confirmed recoveries. See, there are recoveries which account to 38.8% of the total number of infections while the death rate accounts to 4% of this number.

When I began crunching numbers based on the COVID 19 spread and infections, what could not escape my mind (me being a human and all) was, recoveries, I mean, how are these people recovering? I shall try get into this somewhere in this article but first lets ‘again’ understand the corona virus and COVID 19.

We could use a little bit of nomenclature: AIDS is the disease; HIV is the virus that causes the disease, SARS is the disease, SARS Coronavirus-1 is the virus that causes the disease. The current global pandemic disease is called COVID-19 and the virus that causes it is called SARS Coronavirus-2. (this virus is the culprit that’s is giving me and you and everyone else sleepless nights and as you can see it belongs to the same family of SARS)

Yo! As we proceed let me first say that I am not a physician, nor am I an epidemiologist, and not even d a virologist. What am I then? I am a guy in the web working as a concept developer and data modeler.

As we try to understand how guys are recovering, we have to dig into a little history with knowledge from people like Isaiah (Shy) Arkin a professor of Structural Biochemistry at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, whose research, among other achievements, has shed new light on the inner workings of viruses.

So back to it, keeping the nomenclature I just mentioned above in your mind.

SARS Coronavirus-2(the culprit for the disease COVID 19 which is giving you and I the creeps), is incredibly similar to SARS Coronavirus 1, that was responsible for the SARS epidemic in 2002–2003 [which killed 774 people worldwide].

So how was SARS a global pandemic back in 2003 was stopped?

This disease that ‘shook the world’ (this sounds weird they should see how shaken we are).

Well, the battle to defeat SARS in 2003 was divided into 5 parts (part I: Overall perspective; part II: Country and area perspectives; part III: Outbreaks; part IV: The science of SARS; and part V: The way forward). The approach to victory on this strain of virus illustrated with numerous photographs and charts just as we have the in ‘wash your hands campaign and stuff’ WHO coordinated the unprecedented global response and how the affected countries and areas managed the outbreaks — from initial denial, to mass mobilization, to controlling the devastating and rapidly spreading disease.

Lessons were learned from this major public health crisis and provided key information that should be useful for dealing with emerging infectious diseases in the future(as we are now faced with the COVID 19).

So, what did we learn from the SARS outbreak?

There were many lessons, those listed by Brian Doberstyn, who in 2003 was the director of the Division for Combating Communicable Disease in WPRO(WHO Regional Office for the Western Pacific) were about 13 but let me highlight two of them, remember we are shedding light on this tragedy while trying to discover how those infected recovered and those affected dealt with it.

First: “transparency is the best policy”. Although nothing was known about the SARS coronavirus-1 at the time when the disease first struck, it was soon realized that, some of the affected countries did not acknowledge openly and squarely the presence of SARS, downplayed its extent, and attempted to prove that it was something else, ring any bells here? This corona virus respects no borders!

Second: “twenty-first century science played a relatively small role in controlling SARS; nineteenth-century techniques continued to prove their value”. We cannot deny the general truth that we still continue to battle twenty-first century scourges with a nineteenth century toolbox supplemented by a few modern scientific advances. While the identification of the corona virus may not have contributed substantially to control efforts, what was gratifying was that during the SARS outbreak in 2003 there was unprecedented collaboration among scientists and laboratories around the world to work together to identify the causative agent, map its genome and develop reliable diagnostic tests. There was openness and willingness to share critical scientific information promptly. As a result, the virus responsible was identified and its genome mapped within weeks of the outbreak. The scientific world was shown at its best.

It should continue in this vein, with greater and closer cooperation in the face of the current Coronavirus-2 the culprit responsible for the COVID 19 outbreak.

So, again, some light right, as we take precaution in how not to spread the coronavirus-2 by ;

· Regularly and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water.

· Maintain at least 1 meter (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.

· Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth.

· Make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. This means covering your mouth and nose with your bent elbow or tissue when you cough or sneeze. Then dispose of the used tissue immediately.

· Stay home if you feel unwell. If you have a fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical attention and call in advance. Follow the directions of your local health authority.

· Keep up to date on the latest COVID-19 hotspots (cities or local areas where COVID-19 is spreading widely). If possible, avoid traveling to places — especially if you are an older person or have diabetes, heart or lung disease.

How are people recovering? because they are right? see here

Although no conclusive answers are yet to be documented on exactly how people are recovering, your body immunity plays a large part in this, that means eating healthy I guess, fruits and stuff, good hygiene you know. It takes time to recover depending on the severity of symptoms, age and other medical conditions of the patient.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported that about 80 per cent of COVID-19 cases globally are mild, which means these cases, which usually involve fever, cough and perhaps shortness of breath, recover without much of an issue. And the younger the patient with no other medical complaints, the greater are the chances of quick recovery. Some patients, it has been reported, may not even be aware that they are sick.

So, let us not panic but be aware of what we are dealing with and as we move forward, learn to be more human, caring and careful since its affects us all. We have a moral high ground to isolate ourselves when feeling unwell, practise selflessness (not grabbing everything from the stores or hoarding),empathize with the infected and affected and love life in its entirety. To overcome this scourge, we must be the best of ourselves.

God Be with you my friend, we shall overcome.

kivuti kamau

Data Modelling, Design & Development

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